Can Indian wallet power really beat Chinese bullet power- My 2 cents.

Welcome to yet another blog, today I want to share my personal views on some extremely serious Geo-Political discomfort established between the largest continent's two biggest military powers: The Republic of India and People's Republic of China.
Below are some pictures showcasing recent tensions between the Dragon & the Bengal Tiger.

News cutting from Indian New Paper

Indian Soldiers asking Chinese Soldiers
to return back from Indian Territory. 

 Military talks and other diplomatic discussions are happening between both nations to resolve the dispute and let us hope for a peaceful resolution to arrive soon, India is peace loving however the law abiding attitude of India should never be mistaken, India is an extremely danger military power and will use it all its muscles to protect its land from any annexation

For time being park the Military capabilities aside and come to our agenda which is more on economic battle between China & India. Recently a highly respectful & intellectual social reformer from India's U.T Laddakh: Mr. Sonam Wangchuk  proposed the idea of boycotting Chinese products so that Chinese economy suffers and India wins an economic battle over China. 

Sonam Wangchuk

Before I share my thoughts on Sonam's proposal, I am proud to mention on the excellence of Mr. Wangchuk he has many international accolades to his name and has executed many social reforms in Laddakh. He deserves all our appreciation and encouragement.
His works on uplifting the quality of education, living standard of Laddakh people and his unique teaching pedagogy in SecMol school is admirable and worth appreciation. No wonder he has a huge fan following across the world including me.



Is it really going to be a win for India in an economic battle with China, if the entire of India boycott Chinese products as advised by Mr. Wangchuk. I am afraid the answer is a confident No. 

Protest to boycott Chinese products

I say so because I analysed the idea based on economic facts and trade data figures between China & India which clearly articulate; even if India boycott whole of the Chinese stuff we will never cause a noticeable economic damage to China on the other hand if India boycott whole of Chinese Products/Services shockingly India will suffer huge damage economically. 

The above statement looks to be very conflicting to Mr. Wangchuk proposal and below are some of the noticeable reasoning points for saying so, but first a little humor, 'Put a hand on your heart and ask your own mind, Can deleting TikTok defet Chinese Economy.😜'    

Lets get back to business and understand some Trade truths between China & India. 

1. There is absolutely no doubt India is a market to China, then Mr. Wangchuk is correct isn't not really, the problem is whole of Earth is a market to China. Export to India accounts only 3% of China's total export, if whole of India boycott everything Made in China then we cause only 3% damage to China. Is the damage significant not really, Chinese economy can comfortably manage with the 3% Trade deficit in their economy.    

Before I mention my second and more important point lets all revise Newton's 3rd Law of Motion: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. 

Lets assume if China also boycott India, they can also do so seeing India's trade behavior to China, now comes my point 2 which shows a sad future. 

2. India's export to China roughly accounts for US$ 16.32 Billions this is 5.3% of India's total export, we are not in position to bear this loss. If China ensures a No Trade with India policy India will suffer more sever pains. China is 3rd biggest export destination for India, in business we say, "Customer is king." China is our 3rd largest customer. Sadly we are not even in Top 10 trade destination of China.
Inference:  China has no noticeable Trade dependency on India. 

3. Another angle of looking at India's Trade dependency on China 60% raw materials of India's export to non Chinese destination comes from China.   75% raw material of Indian Pharmaceutical Industry including the Hydroxychloroquine comes from China. If China stops supplying raw materials to Indian Pharma industry 80% antibiotics produced in India will cease to stop. With no supply of Raw Materials India's export to non-Chinese destination will stop giving India a serious commercial blow, Indian wallet can tear into pieces if so happens.

China's GDP is 500% of Indian GDP and trust me China has not build this strong GDP just by selling Toys and Crackers to India. 

There is some serious business dependency India has on China. 

The adjacent image shows the Trade relations between China and India. 

Even if these difficulties are managed, still this is not an end to our anguish, lets review point 4 of my reasoning.  

4.  Chinese FDI in Indian Start Ups this is a major economic nuke attack that China can do on India. Indian Start Ups like Big Basket, BYJU's, Delhivery, Hike, Flipkart, Makemytrip, Ola, OYO Rooms, PayTM, Policy Bazaar, Quikr, Rivigo, Snapdeal, Swiggy, Udaan, Zomato all run by Chinese major investment, if China ask for selling its stake overnight these businesses will shut down creating enormous job cuts in India. In last 5/7 years when Indian Banks were giving loans to defaulters like Nirav Modi, Vijay Mallaya. Chinese VCs were funding Indian Tech Start Ups. Almost 2/3rd yes 75% Indian start ups are funded by China or Chinese Organisations. 

Its noteworthy to observe that #StartUp_India #Digital_India funded none of the unicorn Indian Tech Start Ups though Indian Industrialists like Ratan Tata, Narayan Murthy, Azim Premji did have a considerable investment in Indian Start Ups. I guess these people were wiser than Indian Finance Ministry. Anyways we can not question Indian Govt for this negligence. 

(Note: Trade figures are taken from Indian Embassy to China website the link is below, so the data are reliable: https://www.eoibeijing.gov.in/economic-and-trade-relation.php)

Considering the above reasons its certain that in an economic battle it looks very difficult to beat China, does that mean we should surrender to China's aggression the answer is Never.      

Indian Armed Forces has been most professional respected and reliable bodies timelessly, if its about the frontiers of nation China needs to respect the International Treaties and borders between India & China. India is not liable for facing any act of Chinese bully if they do so, in my view answer is simple Chinese Bullets to be replied by Indian Missiles. 

Speaking of the economic battle (tough subject): Below are some reasoning points: 

Firstly, we need to accept #Make_In_India has failed miserably due to stupid policies of Indian Government as such there is no wonders that has happened infact we have been doing disinvestment of our existing decades old industries- few of them are even making profits.

Secondly,  Dialogues and funny slogans like #Make_Local_Vocal, #Trillion_Dollar_Economy #Boycott_China etc. these dialogues and slogans create a sense of ignorance in Indian public. Our politicians need to stop saying these slogans and start speaking with numbers, figures and data sources and work on policies which really help India. 

Thirdly,  In India we need to encourage the culture of Learning discourage the culture of Judging. Here are some global ranking comparison between China & India. 

Rank in Ease of doing Business, China:31st and India: 63rd. 

Rank in Global Competitive Index, China: 28th and India: 68th

Rank in Global Innovation Index, China: 14th and India: 52nd

Fourthly,  India needs to diversify its export and import (reduce the dependency on China), its worth to mention India builds its own Moon Mission Chandrayaan, how can we not make Fighter Planes, Tanks, Radars etc. why we need to import Guns, planes from outside India, why can't Indian Government do privatization to Indian Companies like Tata Aerospace & Defense, this will ease the pressure on India's on defense budget and will be a big boost to Indian economy. 

Fifthly, In English an idiom says, 'Give the Dues to the Devil' India needs to learn from China and work on being a better alternative to China. Rather than boycotting China we need to be competitive to China. India has to understand how can India be a competitive alternative to be the Factory of the World which currently is China. 

There is absolutely no doubt about the inference that Year 2020 is a disaster, I pray that all remain peaceful but yes I surely want to express one thing please don't blindly follow any statement use your research logic and have long term goals of universal brotherhood while defining your short terms targets.

Meanwhile due credit to China, there is no commercial cellphone in the world that has not even a single component from China this dominance comes from hard work & intelligence and Chinese deserve appreciation for the business dynamics they have created all over the world.

Wish you all a happy life, if you like my blog please share it.

न चोरहार्यं न च राजहार्यंन   भ्रातृभाज्यं न च भारकारी ।  व्यये कृते वर्धते एव नित्यं विद्याधनं सर्वधन प्रधानम् 
Neither it can be stolen not it can be divided knowledge  gets multiplied when shared

Cheers !
Nishant